Tiocfaidh ár thaw. Sinn Fein have gone from having 159 local councillors elected in the 2014 local elections to 81 in the last weekend's election. What has happened? Are Sinn Fein a one-trick pony, only good at blowing the whistle when the government steps out of line? Are they a party which the electorate would trust to run the country? These are the questions being repeated ad nauseum by commentators trying to make sense of the party's seemingly calamitous defeat. I even heard one presenter suggest that Mary Lou, only wearing the Sinn Fein captain's jersey a wet week, should step down. Really I think people are missing the point here.
Sinn Fein entered the 2014 local elections on a simple mandate: anti-austerity and, principally, anti-water charges. They were, for all intents and purposes, running on a single-issue ticket. At a time when it seemed like there were no benefits left to cut or taxes left to increase by the Fine Gael-Labour coalition, people voted with their wallets.
But voting can be based on priorities. 2014, economically, seems like a long time ago. In 2014 unemployment was nearly at 12% and a whole generation were flooding out of Ireland in search of work, telling themselves that they would probably be saying farewell to their families for a decade.
Today is different. Unemployment is at a 10-year low and the economy is bouyant. Pretty much everyone who wants a job can have one.
Today the priorities of the electorate lie elsewhere - people are concerned about housing, about the destruction of the planet by climate change and about Brexit. Hence their decision to shift towards the Green party. As I have argued before, I think Attenborough and Thunberg have indirectly been more effective campaigners for the Green Party than its leader Eamonn Ryan.
I don't think it's that Sinn Fein dramatically failed to connect with people or made any calamitous slip-ups since the last election, it's merely that people are concerned about different issues today. In 2014 they channelled the zeitgeist of water charges and in 2019 the Greens have capitalised on the prevailing awareness of climate change.
Unfortunately our chattering political commentators seem to overanalyse these results and are harping on as if Sinn Fein have been reduced to political roadkill after this election. Most voters are, with respect to them, shallow and fickle. More politely, they're not interested in high-level politics, they are simply attracted to parties and politicians which deliver them solutions to issues that matter to them at that moment.
Sinn Fein entered the 2014 local elections on a simple mandate: anti-austerity and, principally, anti-water charges. They were, for all intents and purposes, running on a single-issue ticket. At a time when it seemed like there were no benefits left to cut or taxes left to increase by the Fine Gael-Labour coalition, people voted with their wallets.
But voting can be based on priorities. 2014, economically, seems like a long time ago. In 2014 unemployment was nearly at 12% and a whole generation were flooding out of Ireland in search of work, telling themselves that they would probably be saying farewell to their families for a decade.
Today is different. Unemployment is at a 10-year low and the economy is bouyant. Pretty much everyone who wants a job can have one.
Today the priorities of the electorate lie elsewhere - people are concerned about housing, about the destruction of the planet by climate change and about Brexit. Hence their decision to shift towards the Green party. As I have argued before, I think Attenborough and Thunberg have indirectly been more effective campaigners for the Green Party than its leader Eamonn Ryan.
I don't think it's that Sinn Fein dramatically failed to connect with people or made any calamitous slip-ups since the last election, it's merely that people are concerned about different issues today. In 2014 they channelled the zeitgeist of water charges and in 2019 the Greens have capitalised on the prevailing awareness of climate change.
Unfortunately our chattering political commentators seem to overanalyse these results and are harping on as if Sinn Fein have been reduced to political roadkill after this election. Most voters are, with respect to them, shallow and fickle. More politely, they're not interested in high-level politics, they are simply attracted to parties and politicians which deliver them solutions to issues that matter to them at that moment.
Comments
Post a Comment